Hi Mark Fowler; Even though the institutions own a lot of AMZN, the real driver for this market is mom and pop. When they start puking up their shares, and cashing out their mutual funds, this market is over. Until then, it goes on.
That said, I know a lot of mom and pops, and they are not going to sell their shares until they have to have the money. At the latest, this happens when the boomers all try to simultaneously retire. At the earliest, this happens when the unemployment rate goes sufficiently high. This is not about to happen, unless interest rates get a lot higher, and the dollar dives way deep.
As I posted before ( #reply-10755819 ), my estimates suggest that AMZN growth is going to to be pretty low by mid 2000. It's not that I see AMZN revenues suddenly falling off a cliff. Instead, I just see the growth rate continuing to decline, much as it has for the entire life of the company. I'm estimating sales for 1999 of around $1.47B, which is consistent with official estimates. Where my estimates differ from theirs, is in what will happen to the growth rate in 2000. So for this reason, I don't think AMZN is really going to disappoint (with respect to revenue figures) until 1Q00 or 2Q00 revenues are reported. Bezos has managed to talk down the estimates pretty well. But when growth rates dip well below 100% (same quarter, year over year), people are going to start computing multiples. Could be nearly a year. But those numbers should bring everybody back down to earth. And the fact is that my estimates are really only guesses.
What's your guess?
-- Carl |
