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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4934)8/11/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: DenverTechie  Read Replies (3) of 12823
 
Let's look objectively at what Cisco brings to the cable industry from the view of the cable operator.

Today, not much. Look at their own web page descriptions. They have a DOCSIS certified CMTS (cable modem termination system) but so do Arris Interactive (ANTEC/NORTEL) and Motorola. Nothing special there. It's a good CMTS and has found favor with RoadRunner and HSA as preferred product.

Other than that, their cable modem has not made it all the way through CableLabs certification. They have a VoIP offering that is in trial and they are very high on its prospects. But let's face it, it is still an immature product that has yet to cut its teeth and proven to be scaleable and cost effective.

Justin Junkus, writing in the August 99 issue of Communications Technology magazine states "The only proven commercial solution available now is circuit-switched technology, and the telephony equipment vendors realize that. That's why, despite the marketing emphasis on IP telephony, each telephony vendor is continually improving its circuit switched offering to make it more attractive than the competition's. Cable must offer telephony now because the major established communications companies that have paid for the privilege of using its broadband distribution network are anxious to compete with telephone company access".

I agree wholeheartedly. Ask any knowledgeable engineer in the cable industry and they will tell you that you do not commit a new business and revenue opportunity such as telephony to an unproven and unsupported new technology such as IP telephony. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH AT STAKE. I've said it before but it is just as true today as 6 months ago or a year ago -- providing telephone over cable using known, proven circuit switched infrastructure for transport and switching is hard enough as it is without making it that much more difficult doing it with an unknown IP layer infrastructure. There are too many holes and gaps in the IP story to do a full scale deployment now.

The way to go is with a migrateable platform such as Arris and Tellabs have available. This is the AT&T plan, now that they have seen the wisdom to abandon the initially announced VoIP rollout. Install circuit switched now, and migrate to VoIP when it matures and the support platforms are in place (you can even mix and match circuit switched and IP voice circuits within the same HDT). Logically, this is the only realistic scenario to go with at this time.
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