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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (4816)8/12/1999 12:27:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I'd like to make a couple comments in response to Geof Moore's awakening.

1) We need to fully appreciate the extent to which Geoff Moore has changed his mind.

Previously, his position was that the CDMA space was a royalty game in which Nokia was the king and Qualcomm nothing more than a prince. Now he sees it as gorilla game in which Qualcomm is the large primate. And no mention of Nokia.

Previously, in his mind CDMA was a committee-based standard in which no company had proprietary control. Now that he sees the turf as a real gorilla game, he inherently implies that someone HAS to have proprietary control. By ceding that Qualcomm is smelling like a large primate, it must be Qualcomm that has that control.

2) I don't think for a minute that Ozier Nassery's e-mail to the list is what changed Moore's mind to that degree. Not to take anything away from Ozier's wonderful e-mail, but a person doesn't change his mind 180 degrees on the basis of one unsubstantiated e-mail.

Nope.

I think Moore has talked with a lot of people in his daily work and has gradually come to a new understanding of CDMA's role in communications and Qualcomm's control over the proprietary architecture at the core of CDMA growth. Seeing Ozier's post, he had something concrete to react to.

3) If I were participating in that list-serv, I would post his previous response, his current response, and ask what changed his mind. And since the rate of product adoption is at the very core of gorilla studies, I wonder if he's ever seen the CDMA website that shows the statistics about world-wide CDMA subscribers.

As LindyBill says, he's come a long way but he ain't there yet. He hasn't had the priviledge of reading this thread, so we won't hold his remaining bit of ignorance against him.

--Mike Buckley
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