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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (22803)8/12/1999 5:32:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Lee,

Please keep in mind that when I mention a short-term top, that does not mean that the market will rally nicely to that point and make a clear peak. As you know I work more on the basis of time than price movement.

If the short-term top does occur around AUG 20 and the strong selling resumes therafter, this top may not even look like a top in terms of price movement. As previously indicated, Im more inclined towards ZIG-ZAGGING with a slight upward bias in the SPX range of 1275- 1320, and a slighter chance for a one day/intraday 1340 spurt.

Keep in mind that such was based on my cycle analysis, which is different from my short-term technicals.

Surprisingly, my short-term technicals are now all in the mid-range to overbought. The DOW and the NDX just entered the overbought region already and if the market was to move up 1-3 more days in a row I would be getting CLASS SELL signals. However this does not fall
in line with the short-term top near/after AUG 20. Now either the AUG 20 top is wrong or we could ZIG-ZAG for about another week which would slow down my short-term technicals from getting to a CLASS SELL status too quickly. Another possibility is that I get a CLASS SELL signal in 1-3 days and it dips slightly and moves up again to form a mini double-top closer to the AUG 20 time frame.

Hope I made some sense.

seeya
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