Steven, found this on RB today:
By: IFindKarma
Reply To: None Wednesday, 11 Aug 1999 at 11:53 PM EDT
Post # of 29008
I was thinking about CMGI some more. Fidelity bought up several hundred million dollars' worth of CMGI for one of its funds in May. Gateway bought $200 million worth of CMGI in May. And Compaq accepted 20.8 million shares of CMGI valued at a little over 100 apiece in June. (CMGi's current market cap, $7.5 billion, is only three times what CMGi "paid" for 83% of AltaVista six weeks ago.)
So Fidelity's, Gateway's, and Compaq's shares (along with any of the shares any of the rest of us bought since March) are in the hole. But anyone who bought shares in ANY of the five years CMGI was public prior to March is still up.
Speaking of which, here's the year-end prices for CMGI (split adjusted):
marketguide.com
1994 IPO price -- 0.26
1994 Y-E price -- 0.97 (+273%)
1995 Y-E price -- 5.80 (+498%)
1996 Y-E price -- 2.09 (-64%)
1997 Y-E price -- 3.78 (+81%)
1998 Y-E price -- 26.63 (+604%)
current price -- 76.19 (+186%)
Also interesting are the high/low spreads for each of the last six years:
1994 -- hi 0.97, low 0.26, diff +273%
1995 -- hi 6.28, low 0.69, diff +810%
1996 -- hi 5.91, low 1.14, diff +418%
1997 -- hi 4.03, low 1.38, diff +192%
1998 -- hi 33.88, low 3.38, diff +902%
1999 -- hi 165, low 26.63, diff +520%
What this means is:
1. Buy and hold has worked fine on this stock for the past six years, but someone who bought when the bottom was falling out and sold when things were sunny could have theoretically done better.
2. CMGI's recent stock price behavior is no different from its behavior in each of the past six years: overshoot on the upside, overshoot on the downside.
Meanwhile, CMGI's ratio of shares short to average daily volume is over 1 for the first time since April:
viwes.com
It's difficult to be a strong long. But I'm still gonna try.
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