Pallisard: You might be right. I was kind of busy playing court stenographer, trying to get as much down and out to the "community" as possible, so I may have missed the correct dollar figure. A parenthetical aside....just how DO stenographers do that thing they do anyway.....ear to keyboard fingers and into machine without missing so much as a vowel, much less a sentence. Jeeezus, my hat's off to them. Anyway, I do know I missed the time-frame by which L.D. felt that number could be attained.
As for my thoughts regarding the call.....well....my concern at this point is the same as everybody else's, be they long or short. And that is, OEM contracts and just WHEN we're gonna get satisfaction in that department. In answer I can only say given all we've been through over the past couple of years I cannot even hazard a guess, except to say I'm sure we'll have one within the next year. Ahem! But, the fact that certain aforementioned 10K time-frames have been pushed up to September seems to indicate we'll have an OEM p.o. by years end at the latest. But I'll have to admit, this is a wild-ass guess. A guess I've had to revise since my earlier in the year WAG was an end of July to early August time-frame.
My initial impression about the call was that a lot of what we heard was pretty much the same as what was heard in many past calls. That is, "we're confident of production.....we can sell all we make....we want to be assured of quality so there's no mistakes....etc., etc., etc.." But be that as it may, there were additional commentary never before heard from the lips of L.D., a person I characterize as being extremely reluctant to be nailed down in past calls. Good, positive comments. The one which stands out the most, for me, was L.D. finally quantifying what he feels revenues will be within the next 12 months. If memory serves he stated something along the lines of ~$75/6 Million. The obvious question is, exact why THAT particular figure, eh? Could it be he already knows he can sell that level of production, and has even negotiated a number with a client(s)? A client(s) other than Hanil/Alliant? I'd like to think so, but'll admit this has yet to be proven. Additionally, this gives us a base-line to derive earnings per share, valuations, etc.. He also further stated something along the lines of $200 Million in the future, although I could be wrong about that dollar figure(see above). One other interesting comment he made was that VLNC is now making "significant" COMMERCIAL production. My only regret about that comment is the questioner failed to follow-up with an obvious question in regard to that statement. One which immediately popped into my head when I heard it. What does SIGNIFICANT mean? But the questioner didn't get the significance of asking about the significant comment....ah, well...so it goes. Also, he mention IDB "lowering the bar" on their requirements. This could be considered qualified good news, since my guess is IDB must have been provided sufficient data in order to be willing to do this, eh? He did, too, indirectly confirm all the thread Energizer yakitty yak with his comment about one client, whose name he did not mention, waiting the outcome of being sold(I'm paraphrasing) before continuing with VLNC. Correct me if'n I'm wrong, but as far as I know Energizer is the only company we know of having a relationship with VLNC who's currently engaged in selling a division. So one could interpret this as good news. Also, his comments regarding Hanil imply things are gonna be hopping around that part of the planet in the next few months or so. Oh...but let's not forget a certain negative regarding Hanil. Samsung is NOT beta testing Hanil's product, so all rumors to the contrary can be eliminated at this point.
Still, over-all, I came away with a positive impression of the call. Of course, we didn't hear anything which could be used as a non-conditional stake through the heart of the negativist community. The door is still opened regarding the relevance of their commentary. C'st la vie(is that how that phrase is spelled?). And as it relates to VLNC's stock valuation....well.....since the market doesn't care about any of this(or very little), and probably doesn't follow VLNC as closely as some of the more obsessive among us......Uhhh, that's excepting those who can read the tea-leaves and who may now be considering an early entry position, I view the market overall as still waiting for the only thing that matters, and the only thing they'll trust out of VLNC, given their history. And that is??? A OEM p.o.(s) announcement. (IMHO, of course)
Speaking of which.......
Regards!
John~ |
