Wiz,
If you'll recall, you and i got into a nasty pi**ing contest in April about software stocks. We were nervously buying SEBl in the 30's and you said everyone would wait until the late summer or fall to make sure there was no y2k impact.
We were each 1/2 right. SEBL's done well, and Clarify has pulled back despite solid execution.
I think Clarify's fundamentals are far stronger than the market realizes at this point. I also think there are some significant catalysts coming in the short term.
But, there's a fair amount we should discuss. I feel very strongly that there is distinct product positioning and I do feel that Clarify's management team is very strong and is at a minimum demonstrably more "mature" than SEBL's. But SEBL has great partnerships and is executing fabulously. We have an equal position in each company.
I'm a little unsettled owning the number two vendor, but there are subsectors in this space that the market doesn't appreciate. I also think the street is completely missing two other major points:
1) The product complexity and barriers to entry in enterprise front office are much more significant than they appear. SEBL and Clarify have an expanding lead. (I am not talking about the web only or mid market dreck space where sales illogic, faux onyx, pivotless and sow's earnet play. The mid market is tough to sell and web only product lines are largely irrelevant.) (Shege will appreciate my word play I hope.)
2) The street has no idea how much larger the front office is than the erp market. IMO, it's about six times larger, but I'm seeing some evidence that those figures are small. Of course mindless research from those self justifying idiots at AMR only serves to confuse the thoughtful analysts on the street.
Hey, it's nice to see some life to these threads, let's have at the issues!
(OT: BD, you're welcome to the thread, you know more anyhow, I just like to mouth off.)
TD |
