MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 679.68

+0.7%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Death Sphincter who wrote (22660)	8/12/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Hey Stink, good to hear from you. Nice calls you've been making the last few months. I think the fact that we took out both rising trendlines in the a-d line from February 1994 through May 1996 and February 1994 through March 1999 indicates that the trend has broken down. The fact that we took out the October 98 bottom in the a-d line clearly indicates that this is no ordinary correction within a bull trend - valid four year cycle a-d line bottoms are supposed to hold for the duration of the cycle. The negative breadth thrust in and of itself indicates more to go on the downside. I would not even begin to look for an intermediate term bottom until the a-d line corrects to its February 1994 level - currently 8201 negative a-d's below where we are now. Bad smells. The similarity of this decline to the 1957 debacle is uncanny: (McClellan ratio oscillator) 07/16/99 1418.78 9.61 07/15/57 49.13 21.54 08/25/87 336.77 2.54 07/19/99 1407.65 -1.43 07/16/57 48.88 10.35 08/26/87 334.57 -6.70 07/20/99 1377.10 -21.51 07/17/57 48.58 -7.80 08/27/87 331.38 -23.11 07/21/99 1379.29 -16.98 07/18/57 48.53 -9.23 08/28/87 327.04 -47.41 07/22/99 1360.97 -27.07 07/19/57 48.58 -13.09 08/31/87 329.80 -29.62 07/23/99 1356.94 -39.56 07/22/57 48.47 -17.06 09/01/87 323.40 -50.55 07/26/99 1347.76 -51.57 07/23/57 48.56 -19.23 09/02/87 321.68 -67.83 07/27/99 1362.84 -39.47 07/24/57 48.61 -14.93 09/03/87 320.21 -70.12 07/28/99 1365.40 -37.26 07/25/57 48.61 -12.47 09/04/87 316.70 -77.96 07/29/99 1341.03 -54.84 07/26/57 48.45 -24.00 09/08/87 313.56 -102.76 07/30/99 1328.72 -44.83 07/29/57 47.92 -46.84 09/09/87 313.92 -84.94 08/02/99 1328.05 -46.33 07/30/57 47.92 -33.34 09/10/87 317.13 -52.85 08/03/99 1322.18 -50.96 07/31/57 47.91 -25.35 09/11/87 321.98 -22.24 08/04/99 1305.33 -58.70 08/01/57 47.79 -32.44 09/14/87 323.08 -15.38 08/05/99 1313.71 -58.33 08/02/57 47.68 -26.99 09/15/87 317.74 -34.93 08/06/99 1300.29 -64.51 08/05/57 47.26 -44.33 09/16/87 314.86 -44.72 08/09/99 1297.80 -62.84 08/06/57 46.67 -62.02 09/17/87 314.93 -41.49 08/10/99 1281.43 -75.30 08/07/57 47.03 -41.67 09/18/87 314.86 -39.22 08/11/99 1301.93 -49.18 08/08/57 46.90 -38.29 09/21/87 310.54 -50.18 08/12/99 1298.16 -39.09 08/09/57 46.92 -37.35 09/22/87 319.50 -25.10 08/12/57 46.33 -54.35 09/23/87 321.19 -6.58 08/13/57 46.30 -45.10 09/24/87 319.72 -6.27 08/14/57 45.73 -69.22 09/25/87 320.16 -6.34 08/15/57 45.75 -59.20 09/28/87 323.20 10.02 08/16/57 45.83 -39.49 09/29/87 321.69 1.31 08/19/57 44.91 -64.91 09/30/87 321.83 11.24 08/20/57 45.29 -47.37 10/01/87 327.33 28.11 08/21/57 45.49 -17.94 10/02/87 328.07 29.62 08/22/57 45.16 -29.00 10/05/87 328.08 21.95 08/23/57 44.51 -54.13 10/06/87 319.22 -9.07 08/26/57 43.89 -74.61 10/07/87 318.54 -20.92 08/27/57 44.61 -31.96 10/08/87 314.16 -40.52 08/28/57 44.64 -14.06 10/09/87 311.07 -50.36 08/29/57 44.46 -25.89 10/12/87 309.39 -66.78 08/30/57 45.22 18.88 10/13/87 314.52 -43.84 09/03/57 45.44 34.99 10/14/87 305.23 -67.45 09/04/57 45.05 13.19 10/15/87 298.08 -87.12 09/05/57 44.82 5.40 10/16/87 282.70 -114.66 09/06/57 44.68 13.75 10/19/87 224.84 -141.04 09/09/57 44.28 -7.46 10/20/87 236.83 -139.41 09/10/57 43.87 -29.17 10/21/87 258.38 -74.05 09/11/57 44.26 -7.51 10/22/87 248.25 -88.12 09/12/57 44.82 28.69 10/23/87 248.22 -79.70 09/13/57 44.80 39.07 10/26/87 227.67 -104.15 09/16/57 44.58 24.93 10/27/87 233.19 -78.08 09/17/57 44.64 30.82 10/28/87 233.28 -74.92 09/18/57 44.69 37.52 10/29/87 244.77 -26.40 09/19/57 44.40 19.84 10/30/87 251.79 23.68 09/20/57 43.69 -14.49 11/02/87 255.75 42.05 09/23/57 42.69 -48.18 11/03/87 250.82 23.02 09/24/57 42.98 -24.13 11/04/87 248.96 21.01 09/25/57 42.46 -49.42 11/05/87 254.48 49.87 09/26/57 42.57 -29.14 11/06/87 250.41 50.08 09/27/57 42.55 -4.50 11/09/87 243.17 24.51 09/30/57 42.42 -9.13 11/10/87 239.00 2.81 10/01/57 42.76 10.35 11/11/87 241.90 22.57 10/02/57 43.10 39.25 11/12/87 248.52 53.51 10/03/57 43.14 36.88 11/13/87 245.64 45.78 10/04/57 42.79 24.39 11/16/87 246.76 51.07 10/07/57 42.22 -5.31 11/17/87 243.04 24.96 10/08/57 41.95 -29.85 11/18/87 245.55 43.38 10/09/57 41.99 -7.51 11/19/87 240.05 15.29 10/10/57 40.96 -41.88 11/20/87 242.00 15.43 10/11/57 40.94 -45.10 11/23/87 242.99 25.65 10/14/57 41.24 -23.43 11/24/87 246.39 47.12 10/15/57 41.67 10.66 11/25/87 244.10 43.65 10/16/57 41.33 -3.29 11/27/87 240.34 27.59 10/17/57 40.65 -36.66 11/30/87 230.30 -9.90 10/18/57 40.33 -49.62 12/01/87 232.00 -1.72 10/21/57 39.15 -80.62 12/02/87 233.45 3.71 10/22/57 38.98 -80.97 12/03/87 225.21 -25.43

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