CMGI's valuation from another perspective:
CMGI's stakes in minority held companies is worth 1.5b$ in the public companies (CPTH, YHOO, LCOS, CMDX SILK) and should be worth at least another 800 million for the remaining 20 minority stakes in non-public holdings.
If we substract this amount (2.3b$) from the current market cap of 9.5b$, we get a mere 7,2b$ for the Internet group of CMGI (majorities in AltaVista, Navisite, Engage, Adsmart, Activerse , PlanetDirect etc.).
The current P/S ratios for:
Yahoo 73.5
Lycos 21.6
SEEK 15.3
(Source: SI Profiles)
Let's assume a P/S of 50 is reasonable for CMGI since it's market position is slightly weaker than Yahoo's though being a lot better than those of Lycos and Infoseek.
From the latest earnings report:
The total revenues of consolidated subsidiaries, which include Engage Technologies, Magnitude Network, Planet Direct, and several other entities, jumped 141%, to $43.7 million, compared with the same quarter last year and 12% since the second quarter.
From a RedHerring article on AltaVista:
Mr. Naik estimates that AltaVista brings approximately $150 million in new revenue to the table.
The Internet Group from CMGI should achieve at least 160 million $ in revenue this calendar year. Adding 150 million from AV et. al results in 310 million $ for 1999.
Assuming a reasonable P/S ratio of 50 this results in a reasonable market cap of 15.5b $. Currently the CMGI Internet Group is valued at 7.2b $.
It looks like 150$ per share should be achievable over time baring any unexpected problems.
regards
sunny |
