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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Larry Ames who wrote (31900)	8/13/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Larry, Hasn't the stock dropped right after good earnings the last 2 or 3 quarters? During the last up cycle in '97 AMAT ran up to its high at closing at $108 on the day after posting earnings (Tues), open around the same and remained up in the $100 the rest of the week. Then it fell of into the $90's in Sept. and hit another high of $104 in October prior to the 2 x 1 split. However, this cycle there is no comparison with the 1995 & 1997 cycle price wise. Orders, and the early AMAT run up of the stock appear to be on track but currently the Price is not keeping up as in the past. I do not know why the uncertainity now? However, in 1997, the AMAT stock and semi-equipment makers sold off early while the orders were still going up. Wall Street just started dumping the equipment makers. We old timers were caught and just road out the cycle, took the 2 x 1 split and road the cycle back up. The result is that we made excellent gains. Some had gains from a cost of around $11 to the current $72 over a three year period. AMAT is a Gorilla stock but has violatile swings. It is not a stock for the weak at heart. Just my opinions. Paul

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