<OT> t2K - this is a relief rally, and there will most likely be a retest of some lows next week. However, I expect this to be rather temporary. I expect, later in the week the rally to resume.
Then, just before the FOMC, another sell off. After the FOMC I expect some kind of pop, and this part I'm not clear on... I can't determine at that point whether it will be a strong longish rally, or a very brief pop. In any case, I expect further declines going into OCT.
In shorting, I assume you are counting on the sell-off early next week (probably starting Monday after a brief morning pop up). It is my opinion, that the sell-off will be brief. I therefore do not want to be short going into the weekend. If Monday looks ugly, I can always short the morning pop.
I would be very careful shorting INTC - all semis seem to be untouchable - upgrades, expectations etc.
So, in general, I would not short. Further, I am not even going to short DELL or Hewlett - a lot of stuff is factored in - a lot of people expect them to tank after earnings, and that makes me nervous.
In general, I actually don't see much percentage in going heavily short at this point (select issues excepted) - IMO, there is more $ to be made on the long side. Personally I've been playing JNPR and RHAT heavily. I'm not saying these won't experience down days - but to me this is a no-brainer - these stock are headed higher in the intermediate term. So why do I want to tie up $ on uncertain shorts with all the dangers of snapbacks? In this time frame, I don't want to be short.
Morgan |
