Good doomeR overview for all, compliments of Ron: <The domino effect is the problem of falling systems. One system fails, but another is dependent on it. Like a series of gigantic rows of dominoes, each within falling distance of another, so is the y2k problem and its effects. No one can even guess what these effects will be. This is what makes y2k the most complex problem facing the world -- possibly ever.
Consider banking. Banks are threatened by y2k. Depositors will draw out cash. Then the system collapses. If a business cannot pay programmers because its bank is closed, it cannot complete its y2k repairs. When it fails, the firms it supplied are trapped by production shortages. Etc.
The domino effect is one gigantic "etc."
Scientists speak of the butterfly effect: when a butterfly in California flutters its wings, it sets up wind currents that may produce a tornado in Texas. (That's because just about anything can produce a tornado in Texas.) This is an analogy, of course. We can't test the truth of this hypothesis. But it will be easy to test the domino theory if there is a run by Japanese housewives on the unliquid Japanese banks in 1999. These banks will start selling the U.S. government debt that they hold in the hundreds of billions of dollars worth. Interest rates in the U.S. will soar. The dollar will fall. Meanwhile, the run will spread to other nations.
Who knows where it will start? Only one thing seems certain: it WILL start. And when it does, every market institution and every government will suffer enormous setbacks. (See the category, "Banking.")
Banking is the obvious domino. Here's another: shipping. What happens to cities if gasoline is unavailable to truckers? If the computers that control train schedules break down? If rail freight cars cannot be located by defective computers? Think about your supermarket's shelves.
What happens to production when "just in time production" becomes "bottleneck production"?
Here's another: farming. Modern commercial farming is tied to hybrid seeds. The plants produced by hybrid seeds produce seeds that will not produce healthy plants if planted. Every year, almost every large farm on earth must re-order another batch of hybrid seeds. If, for any reason, the seed companies fail, or the banks fail, farmers will not be able to plant anything. This will lead to a famine. Let's not hedge our words: FAMINE. There is no way today to get enough non-hybrid seeds into production in order to avoid this problem. If this is one of the dominoes, the result will be widespread starvation.
This is an unpleasant thought. Are you willing to order a year's supply of non-hybrid seeds today for a few dollars, just in case? If not, you do not understand y2k and the domino effect. You do not take it seriously.
Y2K is a systemic problem. It cannot be fixed. Whatever it's going to do, it will do. Deferral is the primary response when men face a problem they know they cannot solve. Deferral, in this instance, means resignation to systemic failure. "What's the use?" is a completely rational response to the magnitude of y2k. Too much of the breakdown is going to take place outside institutioonal, regional, and national borders. Money spent to fix your system is thrown away if few of those outside your organization are willing to spend money to fix their systems. Even this assumes that the systems can be fixed.
There is no precedent for a breakdown of this magnitude. It is not clear that money can solve the problem. There is overwhelming evidence that money cannot possibly solve it: there are too few y2k programmers worldwide. Money will only raise the price of programmers; it will not increase their supply in the time remaining. So, the money is not being spent at the local level. Y2K will not be fixed at the macro (system) level because it must be spent at the micro level. It will not be spent at the micro level unless there is a high probability of success for the organization. There is no reason to spend money at the micro level if the macro level will fail. There is overwhelming evidence that the money will surely be wasted: thrown down a y2k hole.
So, the money is not being spent, nor will it be spent. Desperate cries by y2k awareness specialists have led to only one institutional success story (maybe): Visa. But Visa's success will mean nothing in 2000 if the banks fail. Spending money at the micro level will accomplish nothing visible at the macro level. The y2k awareness lecturers are modern-day John the Baptists, crying in the wilderness.
All the programmers' cries of "this insight is not helpful" will not change the reality of this analysis. The money is not being spent. I have shown why. Furthermore, the cries of "we can fix it if we stick together" are bound to fail. We cannot "stick together," for there is no institutional means to "stick us together." |
