. . . Market Thoughts. . . .Yes, you and a few million others would like the answer to the question, "what's next for the market?". . . .and each trader has his or her own opinion on which way things will progress.
It was a great move this week on the Nasdaq, but I think there was more short-covering than there was buying. The REAL trick will be on Monday. . . we have seen terrible Mondays the past month on very low volume. The volume this Monday will tell the tale, in my opinion.
But then, Alec Greenspam tends to like to rant on internets in the summer. . . last summer was when he coined the phrase, "irrational exhuberance." If he doesn't like what he sees, he may do the same this year. And who can predict that? Nobody.
Is this a bear trap, you ask? There is a chance, but boy, it would be a big one. . . we will know on Sunday morning, when we borrow someone's copy of Barrons [I wouldn't be caught with a copy of my own] and read their cover stories. If it bashes high-techs again, then you'll know that there is some bear trap involved. [Funny how there is never a bull trap].
One of our biggest fears, inflation driven interest rates, has been temporarily calmed. . . and that is what is driving this rally.
Make no mistake. I am a bull. I think that the coming Next-Generation Internet will change everything we know about telecommunications in the home. . . and there will be some incredible winners in this race. But there will also be some big losers.
Betting on the old winners, without understanding their strategy or initiative on broadband, is truly a gamble.
There will be new big winners in broadband, in my opinion. . . and sorting them out is taking most of my attention. . . as those stocks are racing north with or without a rally. So you can see that as far as I am concerned, a call on market direction is merely a parlor room trick here and has little real significance.
It's a bottom. Fine. . I bought some stock at bargain prices and am up on those here. Great. But once more, my focus is on the broadband sector, which has been consistently outperforming the market. . .regardless of the ending index numbers.
It is more about know WHICH to buy, than it is WHEN to buy.
Now from a historical standpoint, we saw some traditional indicators kick in to call the bottom this week. But again, the momentum of volume and Tuesday's numbers from Fed will tell the story. . . and the final chapter in this book is Aug. 24 Fed meeting.
Then beginning the day after Labor Day, we open a new book which takes us to the end of the millenium. . . with all new worries and hopes and expectations and fears.
Rande Is |
