Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.05

-3.0%

12:14 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (31926)	8/14/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Ian and ALL, re Needham prediction of orders [decreasing momentum]: if I simple-mindedly assume history will repeat, then SEMI [not necessarily AMAT] orders peak 13 months after they bottomed. Just count the bars in the graph. geocities.com Since in the present cycle we're 9 months from the order bottom, that would mean an order top would be reported by SEMI in November 1999. But Needham jumps the gun. AMAT price isn't supposed to reflect that order peak until about October. :) Gottfried

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