PALO ALTO, Calif. (Dow Jones)--Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) shares were lower for a second day on concerns that the strong recovery in the semiconductor-equipment industry will slow.
The worries, which coalesced around Applied's third-quarter results planned for release next Tuesday, spread to other makers of equipment used to manufacture chips. Companies such as Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS), KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC), Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC), Credence Systems Corp. (CMOS) and ASM Lithography Holdings N.V. (ASML) saw their shares slide.
Analysts at securities firms Warburg Dillon Read and Needham & Co. helped trigger the alarm over Applied's results, market sources said. The fear was that Applied's orders and its outlook for orders growth in the fourth quarter might not meet or exceed Wall Street's expectations, these sources said.
Because Applied has become the sector bellwether, investors projected the growth concerns into a pulse of the industry as a whole. Many also sold their Applied shares, knocking the stock down 6.6% Thursday and another 4% Friday.
The shares closed the day at 69 3/4, down 2 7/8, on Nasdaq volume of 14.3 million. Average daily volume is 7.6 million.
Despite the currents of alarm, many analysts and industry experts maintained a bullish slant on the chip-equipment companies, arguing that the powerful recovery is far from over. In fact, they said, the need for more chip production capacity and the push to shrink semiconductor production to smaller circuit widths could fuel another accelerated burst of growth starting next year.
In a research report released Friday, Warburg Dillon Read analyst Byron Walker said he expected third-quarter orders to be $1.45 billion, or less than Wall Street's consensus estimate for $1.5 billion.
"Bookings will slow from the current torid pace" and "we believe Applied Materials will announce a slowing in orders" in the fourth quarter, he wrote. Wall Street has been hoping for another sequential climb in fourth-quarter orders.
Founderies in Taiwan will need time to digest the significant amount of production capacity they have recently added, Walker argued.
Needham analyst Theodore O'Neill could not be reached for comment.
But several analysts disputed the less optimistic views.
"There is no disaster here," said Merrill Lynch analyst Mark Fitzgerald. "We don't see the business rolling over here. My sense is it was a really strong quarter for bookings."
Fitzgerald said he expects third-quarter orders of $1.55 billion, up from $1.39 billion in the second quarter. He also said he expects the company to say it sees fourth-quarter orders rising above the third-quarter level.
Analysts point out that the strong order growth of the past several quarters may slow slightly, but not enough to derail the industry upturn that began in the middle of last year.
"The chip industry is healthy and it is getting healthier," said David Wu, an analyst at ABN/Amro, referring to the purchasers of chip equipment. "The upturn will last."
Chip demand is growing in the communcations, industrial and personal computer areas, and by the second half of next year, there is anticipated to be a shortage in production capacity for DRAM memory chips, analysts say. In 2001, chip companies will begin to need a whole new generation of equipment to handle larger, 300 millimeter wafers.
Bulls on the chip-equipment sector also argued that the stocks are not overpriced compared with other technology stocks.
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