Here's a link to an analyst
here is a quote from your analyst..are you sure you read the whole thing?
"Is there a large enough market for high-end PCs next year to get RDRAM prices within 20 to 30 percent of SDRAM prices? If 115 million PCs ship in 2000, perhaps 20 percent of them will be "high-end" desktop machines. If half of those use Rambus memories (10 percent of the market), and each machine has 128 Mbytes of memory, that is 92 million 128-Mbit RDRAMs for the year. But that total must be divided among the active vendors, with eight companies expected to be competing by mid-2000.
Roughly speaking, these back-of-the-envelope calculations argue that few vendors will be making more than 1 million RDRAMs per month next year, which is only a few thousand wafer starts a month. Granted, those volumes will be higher toward the end of the year, and much higher in 2001, when Intel and AMD microprocessors are running so fast that Rambus-type performance will be more attractive."
this analyst says rambus gets 10% of the market to start and then goes much higher towards the end of 2000. ok, i can agree!!! (as a matter of fact his call for a quick 10% is higher than my more conservative estimate.)
what he fails to include in his overall totals are workstations and laptops. why did he conveniently leave those out? coppermine will be here in oct or nov of this year.
And if rambus support is pulled from timna, that number will probably be below 5%.
yes! and if the world ends, we all die and it doesn't matter.
if you have a basis for that statement please post it.
otherwise you are spreading baseless fud and you run the risk of losing credibility on the thread.
The video game market will help, but sales from that market involve smaller per unit revenue - and it's a far smaller total market.
the game station market is estimated at 32 million units in 2000. doubling in 2001 to 64 million. that is a pretty big market to me especially since rambus owns 100% of it.
So wouldn't it be better to estimate 01 earnings as a range from a little under $1.20 a share to a little over $12.00?
you are entitled to your estimates. i'll stand by mine until proven otherwise. i have provided you with a lot of information and estimates including verifiable sources. i invite you to do the same.
i would really like to see the numbers, estimates, calculations, and sources you are using to create your $1.20
unclewest
dan,
you are a techie...you understand this better than i. when granularity gets to 512m later this year or early next year and intel can put 64mb of rambus in one piece directly on the timna processor how can sdram compete? then think about this samsung says they are going to double that 512 to a gig by next year. how about explaining all that to us.
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