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To: jay silberman who wrote (384)	8/15/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) of 3951

I just found this report on the submarine fiber optic market. prgguide.com The executive summary at the end is well worth reading. Two quotes: "The worldwide fiber optic submarine systems market will exhibit its healthiest levels of production in its entire history. Cumulative investment from 1999 to 2004 will total $31.8 billion, nearly twice the total fiber optic investment as of year-end 1998. Spending on submarine fiber optic systems entering service in 1999 will total $6.9 billion, its most robust year ever. Yet this will be eclipsed by spending on systems entering service in 2000, which will total $8.3 billion ($6.8 billion of these systems have already been announced). In 2001, the value of new fiber optic cables entering service should decrease temporarily to what is a historically average level of $2.8 billion. In 2002 and 2003, there will be another round of increased spending, as access technologies will increase end-users' international demand. To meet this demand, more than $5 billion worth of new systems will enter service each year. Spending will level off again in 2004, but the $3.4 billion spent on systems entering service that year wills till surpass any historical annual investment before 1999. " "Analysis of worldwide demand: Pioneer's detailed demand analysis determines demand on both transoceanic routes and in regions. The forecasts determine the required Internet, corporate data, and voice capacity. The forecasts of demand on the transoceanic routes are as follows: The compound annual growth of transatlantic demand will be 109 percent from year-end 1998 to year-end 2004. The compound annual growth of transpacific demand will be 116 percent. The compound annual growth of North America-South America demand will be 88 percent. The compound annual growth of North America-Australia demand will be 97 percent. The compound annual growth of Western Europe-South Africa demand will be 108 percent. The compound annual growth of Europe-Asia demand will be 59 percent."

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