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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.70

-0.5%

11:01 AM EST

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To: gpowell who wrote (14537)	8/15/1999 3:21:00 AM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (1) of 29970

Run the numbers, ATHM under protected access will have about 3.5 million users by 2003 at the current penetration rates. What will AOL have by 2003 40 million? You assume everything will happen linearly and develop in the same fashion as it is today. However, most likely cable deployment will increase exponentially, and AOL's sub increase will plateau due to increasing competitions from all fronts. AOL is not looking good with 40% churn rate.

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