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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (9099)	8/15/1999 6:13:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) of 9980

Did you read beyond the headline of that article? There is no doubt that the Chinese will put on a show of force, but they will not try to take back Taiwan by force. President Lee knew when he made the comments that he was depriving Beijing of face which would be regained through the rattling of sabers. He took the calculated risk, and will ride out the consequences, which will probably not be very severe: the worst response that has been discussed would be a Chinese move on some tiny islands that are closer to China than Taiwan. The Taiwanese are probably hoping for this; they would lose nothing of any significant value and would gain enormous leverage in Washington, which is what they want. Nobody has noted any serious mobilization or preparation for any military move, according to the article you cited. All of this is predictable, part of the chess-game of face. A previous balance was upset by an aggressive comment from one side. The other side will respond, and then business as usual will continue, as it did in 1996. None of it has anything to do with eventual reunification.

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