Re: sounds to me you're really deluding yourself
I can get a bit carried away responding to the "no it isn't" style posts. I'm pretty realistic (I think) about AMD. It's a speculative stock at this point, that stands a chance of failing and having to be broken up and sold off in the fairly near term - but under that circumstance, I'd expect it to go up a bit.
It remains that the performance of the Athlon, on Pentium optimized code (the only thing out there so far) is absolutely stunning, and came as a real surprise. Several pieces still need to come together, the chips have to be produced in volume (news there is, apparently, good), the chipsets and motherboards have to be produced in volume (news there is bad, but since the EV6 bus has been around for years and is well known, building motherboards is most likely not going to be a problem) so we just have to wait and see.
I also am pretty confident that Intel will be at 800MHZ by the end of the year - but they may run into some of their own chipset/motherboard problems, and since Intel isn't using a technology that has been around for years (they had been planning to use rambus) the company that may be running into problems towards the end of the year could be Intel - Intel is a far more diversified business and will do fine as a corporation, even under such circumstances, but the profits from high end CPU sales dwarf everything else, and a stumble in that area could cause a massive NPV recalculation by the market. Given the present relative valuations of AMD and Intel, I think that AMD is a good prospect.
Regards,
Dan |
