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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 680.44

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (23048)	8/15/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Dennis, i know of PEI's concerns re. Russia, Japan and China.i think they are overblown with the exception of China perhaps. the fiscal position of the Russian government has improved considerably with the rise in crude oil prices. economic data out of Japan continue to beat expectations and the rise in Japanese long bond yields has thrown a lifeline to the banking system, which can now profit from the spread between long and short rates. the CSFB investigation was supposed to result in massive capital flight from Japan. by all accounts the opposite is happening. the hedge fund rumors continue to circulate and represent a big wild card - the widening of credit spreads suggests that someone must have lost a lot of money - we'll see what comes of it. some stock market bulls are already arguing that the widening of the spreads will stay the Fed's hand, which in the market's perverse logic would be bullish for stocks. regards, hb

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