Share structure as of 16/07 - Shares outstanding 197.4mil, fully diluted 292.2mil
[unchanged as of today, as far as i know]
Warrants -
As per 16/07 release, 18.85mil one-year .17 warrants to Urija Trading.
As per 10/06 release, 28.035mil one-year .23 warrants to Ekuseni [now New Mining]
As per 23/04 release, .5mil .30 warrants expiring 31/12/99 to Austfin.
As per 26/02 release, 54.472mil one-year .17 warrants to Ekuseni and others.
As per AIF of 27/05, .595mil .35 warrants to three holders at various expirations.
Those add up to 102.46mil, a figure which disagrees with the website's 94.8mil [292.2 minus 197.4 equals 94.8]. The website is likely correct, some of the above may have been exercised?
Cash on dilution -
18.85mil X .18 = 3.39mil
28.035mil X .23 = 6.45mil
0.5mil X .30 = 0.15mil
54.472mil X .17 = 9.26mil
0.595mil X .35 = 0.21mil
Total cash on full dilution - 19.46mil Cdn [probably incorrect - cut the warrants by ~10% to make the FD figure agree with the website, and there's roughly ~17.5mil Cdn cash comes in on FD].
This is a lot of paper. The company would have gone under in the extreme troubles of the past year without the RSA cash support, but that support came at the price of inflating the shares out into what looks like Rollback Imminent territory, and the cheap warrants will overhang the market until they expire or are exercised.
On the other side of it - The company has survived. I think they're well into positive cash flow already, with both Luo and Yetwene ticking along. No thug attacks lately in Angola, a peace deal in Sierra Leone. The RSA people buying in are making a comment on their perception of the future for the company, and if you check their histories you'll find they have a habit of making good bets.
All things considered, i think the company has turned the corner, but the market hasn't recognised the fact yet. Maybe it won't for a while, or maybe we find a new level Tuesday, who knows. Africa will always be Africa, with a huge discount for risk in market cap per asset terms, but the current discount won't last, given recent trends, imho. I think it's a good bet. Market cap at .20 [x197.4mil out] = 39.48mil Cdn. Not much compared to assets and earning capacity.
I still hold the wsp, and will till takeover. Been in and out of rxd several times, made money every time but sell too early. Same with abz. Archon is worth a close look, for sure eh [no, i don't follow it], but that Stockhouse article will attract enough interest to put it out of touch next week, likely, eh. I prefer bottom-fishing, especially in combination with a political situation, for some reason. There's huge country risk here with dmw, but take a look at those assets - there's huge reward if things go even fairly well. And they do seem to be going that way, at the moment.
Ever look at jdx? - that's my biggest speckie position lately ... just picked up a few xcl, a really beaten-down junior gold, ~$1/oz .. i wonder if golds will show the shine they did last September ... also have been picking up xlx, a biotech/legal play that was showing signs of renewed life Friday - once upon a time i lost ~.65 cents a share on it, now i've been buying it for half that -g- .... also time permitting i plan to look into kry - now there's a political situation ... and suf - undervalued for sure - i have this fantasy where jdx or dmw gets to profit-taking level just as suf hits 2.38 when the Greenline margin call effect sets in ... stranger things have happened -g- ... anyways, hope you had a good shoot ..... cheers
ps - forgot to post the SW thread yesterday - forums.canada-stockwatch.com
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