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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.97

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12:43 PM EST

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To: John O'Neill who wrote (31947)	8/15/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) of 70976

I think the best strategy is to wait till the market does crash badly and then buy in on a cost averaging plan that takes into account that the bottom may be very low.. I trust you realize that 78% of the time that strategy to be out of the market is wrong. i.e. The odds are MORE THAN 3:1 AGAINST YOU BEATING THE S&P 500. And that Cost Averaging when you already possess the lump sum is ALWAYS THE WRONG STRATEGY COMPARED WITH JUST INVESTING THE LUMP SUM RIGHT NOW. Fewer than 4% of fund managers have beat the S&P500 return for the last 5year period. No bear fund manager is included in that select list. Nobody knows what direction the market will take tomorrow; or if and when it will crash. But there's one thing which is almost an iron clad guarantee. If you consistently bet against the most probable result, and, if you consistently bet against the trend, your odds of equaling the market are close to nil. Nonetheless, if putting your money into FDIC insured money market funds is the only thing that allows you to sleep well at night, then that is obviously the right course for you. Ian.

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