MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.63

+0.4%

Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (23101)	8/15/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: JG	Read Replies (5) of 99985

HB, just some thoughts. In light of strong momentum on Fri., SPX goes to 50 day MA of 1345 on Mon.(8/16). Tue. - flat to down depending on CPI - recent inflation no-news expect CPI to be non-inflationary- if so - this is already built in - see Friday. Wed. - Down hard - profit taking and uncertainty - Thur & Fri - flat to down - based on past 3 days. Week 8/23 - 8/27: Big news on 8/24 - Raise in rates? If Greenspan raises anticipated .25 - major down because of recent good news in inflation from last week - market asks, why raise? If he doesn"t raise rates - investors know he panders to the politicos against best interests of Mr. 6 pack. Rumors have him leaving soon for what ever reason - he may just bump it .50 - to do what is right in his mind since he will not be around anymore - market goes berserk and down hard to finish off the anticipated correction. In either case, bonds look good under any of these scenarios - All down hard scenes will have bonds go up because of flight to safety - If analysis is way off and market goes sky high - that means dollar/interest rate good - bonds still go up. JG

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