>>Does that make Indonesia the better choice
>>for your money?
William - thanks for your post. I believe if you go back and read the posts I have made on the issue of YTD return analysis, you will find that I clearly indicated that YTD return is only one of several factors that one might take into consideration when evaluating whether to buy, sell or hold a stock. Do I believe that Indonesia represents a better investment than AMZN? Actually I see them as being about on par with regard to the amount of risk - however, Indonesia appears to have much higher return. Since I do not like taking on that much risk, I would invest in neither Indonesia nor AMZN. However, if you compare Indonesia to Boeing, I would readily choose Boeing - for the reason that I feel the risk with Boeing is much lower, despite the fact that the return is lower as well. I don't think I need to tell you this - it's not just return, it's risk, and a lot of factors.
Do you disagree that the psychological impact of AMZN's negative YTD return might help to contribute to negative sentiment on the stock? I believe it does - and will continue to do so if AMZN does not show a positive return by the end of the year.
And back to the question I posed to you earlier - do you feel it is not useful to evaluate historic returns on an investment? I'm assuming you do find it useful - and if this is true, then in analyzing stocks in general, there is a need to select an appropriate date in the past from which to start such analysis. It seems that most media analysts choose the beginning of the year - this may or may not be relevant, but it is done nonetheless. Keep in mind that as time goes on, AMZN's stellar performance prior to 1/1/99 becomes less and less relevant.
Thanks for your comments.
-Eric Wells |
