MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: JG who wrote (23103)	8/16/1999 2:20:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I am far from strong bullish but I see numerous hints that we could be starting a new leg up here. There were a multitude of stocks and sector indexes that backed off from resistance levels or 200 DMAs but if these fall and we move through these levels after the CPI report, I see us possibly going as high as 11600 DOW. Call me nuts as I still would rather see another down leg to my original OEX target of 645 on heavy volume but we could just rally from here. Note that back around the 6th of Aug I switched some forks on to show the bullish alternate scenario and so far they are doing well. I only wish this wasn't option expiration week since the skewing makes reading the market so much more difficult. It seems every week we have something getting in the way of a clear read. Next month will be futures rollover so that will get interesting as well and although it will soon be earnings warning season and September is historically a bearish month, I have many indications that we could possibly be starting a new uptrend here. There is a lot of damage that needs to be repaired. Note MSFT fell out of a long term bullish fork and is lagging thus far. Numerous other normally leader stocks are lagging but they are also showing bullish consolidation patterns for the most part. I will be watching bank stocks and telecom the closest since they hinted at the down turn before it happened. If these sectors can take the lead, I will start going heavier to the long side and might even hold a few positions over night. <g> I am on leave this week so I will be around. Congrats LG and DOn on making the hot list once again. Unfortunately I was so busy this weekend I have no trading plan as of yet so I may just have to watch Monday morning and hope something jumps out at me. EDIT - Just saw the pst about Bonds. I have the TYX or Bond rate dropping to 5.9% at my middle tine. From there I will have to see what is going on as to if it will drop to the lower tine or bounce back up to re-attack the top tine. Good Luck, Lee

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