I have, as you know, tried several times to take up your challenge and been clobbered by SI glitches. Trying once again and with no help from IR, which should be knocking itself at the moment to hang onto and to attract investors:
For the current quarter and next, let us assume that a good deal of the channel clearing has been effective. This would suggest antivirus sales on a year-over-year basis down between 40% and 45% for both quarters; network management revenues should be off about 40% this quarter and 35% in the fourth; data security should be rise about 30% in the current quarter and well over 40% in the fourth; help desk looks like it's going to be flat to up marginally in the third quarter and maybe about 15% in the fourth. Overall, this gives us software product sales off about 35% in the current quarter and 30% in the fourth. So we can look for total revenues, including maintenance, of about $185 to $190 million for the current quarter and a shade over $212 million for the fourth.
I'd say that total revenues for this year will probably come in at a bit over $670 million.
Now let's consider costs: If the gross margin is back to its normal range, COGS should be between $32 and $33 million in this quarter and a trifle over $38 million in the fourth. Assuming that the company is slowing down the rate of R&D spending, look for for R&D of about $34 million in the third quarter and $33.5 in the fourth; sales and marketing should come in at $88 million in this quarter and $89.5 in the next. The real place I see some work to make the numbers is in G&A, which despite effect of stock options, should be at 10% of sales or under for both quarters. Amortization of intangibles (remember that SEC ruling?) should be a steady $15 million.
So we still have NETA at breakeven to a small loss on an operating basis for this quarter and profitable to the tune of an estimated $17.5 million for the fourth quarter.
However, since the company will not be burning cash for the quarter, one can factor in at least $5 million of net interest income for both quarters, yielding $4.0 to $4.5 million in pretax profit for the current quarter and over $22 million for the fourth quarter.
I am assuming a 30% tax rate for both quarters. However, the dramatic increase in fully diluted shares outstanding suggests the following EPS numbers:
3Q1999 4Q99 FY1999
EPS, operating and diluted $0.00-$0.02 $0.10 ($1.10)
EPS, operating, diluted, ex. amort. $0.07-$0.10 $0.16 ($0.47)
Looking ahead toward 2000, if they don't screw up, full-year EPS could range from $0.55 to $0.60 including amortization; $0.80 to $0.85 ex amortization. |
