I think you're right about the stock being influenced by the Taiwan problem (and there were articles about it Friday in both the NY Times and Washington Post). But from what I've read, Beijing seems too afraid of hurting relations with the West to let anything serious get started.
From "China Mulls Taiwan Strategy", AP, Aug. 13:
"One analyst said any Chinese action against Taiwan would have ruinous effects on Chinese ties to the West, threatening China's highly profitable trade with the United States and killing indefinitely China's hopes of joining the World Trade Organization.
Douglas Paal, president of the Washington-based Asia Pacific Policy Center, said he had been visited separately by Chinese military, government and academic representatives. He described the meetings as ``much more intense' than interviews that he regularly has with them.
He said China regards the current difficulties with Taiwan as being more serious than the situation in 1996 when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui engaged in a campaign to gain greater international recognition for Taiwan.
Paal said the Chinese asked how the administration might respond to various possible situations but avoided describing specific scenarios that might suggest what they were considering.
He said they talked about the possibility of capturing small, outlying Taiwanese islands, then appeared to back away from that option as too ambitious. They also raised the possibility of attacking ships.
Paal added that the Chinese seemed to be carrying out a cost-benefit analysis. ``They're in the process of trying to make a decision, and they want to know what the outcome would be,' he said.
James Mulvenon, a Chinese army expert at the Rand research organization, said he also was approached by Chinese emissaries.
``They walk in with the same message,' Mulvenon told The Washington Post. ``We're going to do something. We can't tell you what, but we're going to do something. The goal for China would be to cause maximum impact in Taiwan without bringing in the United States.'
It was hard to say whether China was carrying out normal information gathering activities, seeking to intimidate Taiwan through saber-rattling or attempting to accomplish both goals at the same time.
Both the New York Times and the Washington Post carried lengthy stories Friday on the Chinese activities.
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Over the short term, China has a lot at stake internationally. President Jiang Zemin has meetings planned this fall with President Clinton and French President Jacques Chirac. Also, many Americans and other foreigners have been invited to 50th anniversary celebrations of the communist revolution in early October.
Paal suggested that one Chinese goal is the induce Taiwan to back away from its separatist talk. Asked whether they appeared to be trying to find scenarios that wouldn't provoke U.S. military intervention, Paal said, ``They put it to me very bluntly: 'Are you ready to go to war over Taiwan?'
The United States maintains unofficial links to Taiwan The relationship is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act, which authorizes the sale of defensive weapons to the island and to treat threats with concern. The law is deliberately vague on the question of whether U.S. forces would help defend Taiwan."
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Even if the worst happened and the U.S. got into military involvement with China....well, although it was incorporated in Colorado, RMGG is really Canadian, no???
I'll be here with you, Major. |
