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Strategies & Market Trends : BCRX: Target practice for shorts

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To: arpad toth who wrote (30)8/17/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: arpad toth  Read Replies (1) of 96
 
Heading to the wrong direction......
This is from the yahoo board

Very nice woman in IR department said the following:

1. The run-up in price seems to be due to the Smith Barney analyst raising her 12-month price target to $25,
and positive comments by Weisbrod that appeared in Barrons. (BTW, one of Weisbrod's other picks,
Aronex, took a nice little dive not too long after on FDA problems).

2. JNJ is handling the all the clinical work at this stage. She doesn't know if JNJ will release results this month
or not. Apparently, the Smith Barney analyst concluded that based on a JNJ filing from several months ago
that they expected to have results this month. BCRX will discuss its results (preclinical and early clinical) at a
conference in September.

3. She doesn't know what the Phase II trial design is. However, given the short timeframe involved and the
fact that JNJ did it in the Northern hemisphere in June or so, means that it is likely a challenge study where
you inoculate healthy patients with the flu and test the drug. So the flu strains used would likely be lab strains,
not the wild type, and the study could not be very large.

4. She said there was no basis for a JNJ buyout. Not "no comment" or "I can't comment on that". Just said
no.

In my opinion, people may be buying waiting for JNJ results this month that may not happen, and when they
do, the results aren't going to be that important. Price looks a bit inflated at this point, and JNJ already owns
all rights to the drug.

Posted: 08/17/1999 10:53 am EDT as a reply to: Msg 874 by palmer1973ass


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