The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: MythMan who wrote (56836)	8/17/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 86076

MM, a short term cycle LOW for the market was projected for the 18th...since the market is rising i suppose it will be a high rather than a low. that should be good for a short term downdraft into the Fed meeting. the 23rd or 24th will likely be a good opportunity to get rid of puts and close out short positions. i fully expect the rally to resume after the FOMC meeting the latest, and probably in earnest. Acampora's Dow 13,000 target is probably not too outlandish after all...when i was still writing the sentiment report on the MDA web site i have always argued that a grand final blow-off rally would take place while the Fed was busy starting a cycle of rate hikes, and i believe the time is at hand or at least very close. of course it will be very difficult to time one's exit properly once the blow-off is in full swing - the window of opportunity will be small. to illustrate what i mean best look at the '89 blow-off in Japan... the market rose almost perpendicular and suffered a sudden reversal. after the initial downswing it bounced around for about two weeks, which was the only opportunity one had to get out and go short. btw, if we see another sharp correction BEFORE the blow-off begins, don't be fooled into thinking the end is nigh. just watch for the crash predictions to proliferate as they did during the last correction - only when no-one, or only very few people consider the possibility of a crash will it be time to massively short a correction. anyway, that's how i see things right now...i may well be wrong of course, but i don't think so. the blow-off should confound even the most audacious expectations both in terms of speed and size. at the very peak a loss of momentum should be discernible, followed by a key reversal or an island reversal. note that i am merely trying to extrapolate from past bubbles and these things do not always play out in the same way. however, since so many manias in the past have had similar characteristics, this one should conform as well. we'll see...

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next