Peter,
Having started this, I'll chime in w/ my one liners pro and con on your portfolio for what they're worth:
VRTX - Over-focused on science, which leads to burn rate; Now over in on the Munch thread that makes them an attractive candidate.
GELX - SunPharm looks synergistic, but this has not been one I've followed closely
ALKS - Pass
CLTR - IMO the clinical data shows it works better than rituximab. Would NHL patients care if it came from a rhinoceros?
NPSP - Spending all their time waiting on partners, so you're exposed to AMGN's timing in advancing their collaboration
AVIR - This could really increase the percentage vaccinated, which has a huge impact on flu season severity (public health motivation), and oral vaccines are how many seasons away; A live vaccine may be an issue with the FDA, but will they nix the product or just require Phase IV studies?
ALGO - Pass
CELG - There was some hype to the resurrecting the evil Thalidomide story, but now they're taking it into more indications that most other new products
ELN - They are doing alot of deals, its dangerous to short someone w/ that much opportunity to surprise you
TKTX - TKTX may win very well at the bar, but AMGN in court is a little like Mike Tyson was in the ring - unless they bite the judge's ear off - and these guys seem a little too cocky for someone who has yet to get a product approved
GENZ - Don't see the short on this one
SEPR - I'm an acknowledged agnostic here, but I would probably short this at times (I'm not currently). Don't believe they've demonstrated the validity of ICE's yet
INCY - Alot of people owe alot of royalties here; unfortunately they keep trying to ruin that with non-info products.
That said, what events will send the shorts covering in each of these? I think that may be the problem w/ INCY; is there a defining event?
biowa |
