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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (56859)	8/17/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) of 86076

heinz, you'll notice that DBRSY had a pullback to its uptrend line in a similar spot as the bond is in now (it touched its uptrend in yield today).... i think alot of people are looking for the 1987 scenario where bonds rallied as stocks crashed so they are buying... it could very well be that this one is a little different and that stocks and bonds collapse TOGETHER giving everyone the pocker up the butt... EXCEPT those who own gold and its shares.. which by definition must be the minority (as it was in 1987 that the minority owned bonds because recent history had shown them that yields always rise-- foolishly I might add) while many owned gold and gold shares to hedge their stocks cause they always rose when stocks came under pressure and had spectacularly so just 7 yrs earlier (the gold shares collapsed several months before the crash if you recall and were worth little in the way of insurance) now we have the exact opposite.. the one asset class that almost nobody owns SHOULD be the only one to be a safe haven during the coming fun.... a possible scenario is the following.. we selloff into expiration and hitch up on monday just below the previous lows as we await the FOMC, the Fed ocmes out and raises a qtr or none and then the bond mkt starts to slide and stocks bounce exuberantly that Al.com has not squeezed them and but stocks strangely fade as the bond is sliding.... wed stocks and bonds get shellacked as pundits argue the bond mkt fears Easy AL is not being aggressive enough to stop inflation while thebulls still claim there is no inflation and nothing to worry about as long as the Fed isn't raising rates... we selloff into fri and have a 3000 pt WIPEOUT on monday morning as the yield on the long bond hits 7.5%..... almost to the day of last yr's panic delcine. it makes a nice fairy tale anyway -g-

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