Bob : Thanks for showing us those beautiful charts and, of course, my congratulations on a magnificent bit of work (as usual!)
As you say, it seems most unlikely that mine prduction will fall by 40%. It has certainly risen in the past two years as the gold price fell. Still, at $250-260 many mines will have to go to the wall.
What I find most fascinating is that production has in fact doubled since the mid-seventies. And at a time when CBs were not serious buyers. I am sure it is this, as much as CB selling and speculation, which has weighed on the gold price.
Another fact is also clear and that is South African production, which is now only half of what it was in the early seventies, is likely to fall more, absolutely and relatively to the other sources, in the years to come. The reason, clearly, is mining costs and, in particular, the cost of labor which in the mines, like most other places in SAf, is unproductive and uncompetitive. As an aside, the trade unions hope to bring the country to its knees next week in an attempt to force government to pay higher wage increases in the public sector. |
