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Technology Stocks : Network Associates (NET)
NET 232.87+3.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Edwarda who wrote (5705)8/18/1999 12:24:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (3) of 6021
 
Well, your challenge to me laid out a pretty bullish scenario, and one with which I am not that comfortable. But if you are correct, then we should see an increase in the liability account "deferred revenues".

[For those on this thread who are not familiar with the term, it refers to prepayments made to the company for product and services not yet rendered. Deferred revenues are a good way to see the future, and an unexpected drop is a major negative. The reason for my bearish stance on the company is that the deferred revenues decreased last quarter by about $43MM. That decrease was greater than the sales booked, which means that there were net order cancellations of at least $18 MM, assuming that all of the revenue booked came from deferred revenues.]

But, given the fact that you insist on a bullish scenario, I must acquiesce and forecast that deferred revenues will increase by about $20MM (I'm really gagging on that one!).

The one change I think I will make to your forecast is that depreciation and amortization will be about $20MM.

May I assume that you did not include a non-cash charge of around $4.2MM interest on convertible notes in your forecast?

In my next post I will present a cash flow projection based on the forgoing considerations.

TTFN,
CTC
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