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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 205.61

+4.4%

10:59 AM EST

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To: Bipin Prasad who wrote (11453)	8/18/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) of 19080

"The 6% drop in price comes on the heels of a DLJ research report which noted the tone of Oracle's management was uncharacteristically cautious regarding its fiscal 1Q outlook. Historically, Oracle's institutional shareholder base has had a solid segment of aggressive growth, momentum-type investors and this is type of the news typically serves as a red flag for these institutions. Aggressive growth investors usually focus on two things: earnings growth and price momentum. Any signs that either price or earnings may slow in the near-term, sends these guys racing for the door. That is exactly what we're seeing in Oracle's trading today as institutional investors adjust their positions to account for the increased risk arising from the potential for a revised outlook for 1Q. The more aggressive institutions who have short-term investment horizons, are paring shares while the longer-term core growth-type investors are showing a buy-on-the-dip mentality . . ." ---------------- I find the DLJ comment suspect & reminiscent of past "false-alarms" we have seen perpetrated upon ORCL in the past. If the comments coming from ORCL was so "uncharacteristic," how come the brain surgeon from DLJ was the only one to recognize it. If you ask me, given the curve ball ORCL threw the analysts at the last meeting, I would tend to discount any spin I heard & rely more upon my fundamental analysis. If there's one conclusion I gained from last Q's surprise is that rather than meeting Street expectations, ORCL may now be playing the game of surprising them to the upside by guiding them lower prior to earnings. Yes, this could be just another trading opportunity to get in on a good price. JMO.

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