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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE

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To: llwk7051@aol.com who wrote (3360)8/18/1999 4:46:00 PM
From: michael r potter  Read Replies (2) of 4467
 
SI reported back and said the problem was fixed. -OT- Never fails, after a ferocious rally since early last week, with many gains in the 25% to 50% range, an influential internet analyst comes out today and says buy for the holiday period. My question is, was he on vacation 7 days ago when the reward/risk ratio was really good? This type of thing is a short term sell signal, and it wouldn't be surprising to see his well published buy call be a short term top. Sold EBAY one day early, but projection for EBAY was to $130. Todays high was $129 3/8. Probably the high for this run, at least in the short term. Sure wouldn't want to be one of the buyers today after it has run $50 or 65% in 7 days. Is risk/reward ratio even considered?.....When calculated yesterday, SFE was trading at around a 24% premium to NAV. My guess is that over the next 6 mo. it will spend a lot of time in the 20% to 30% range, with a low premium of 0% to 10%, if the market gets hit hard, and maybe a 40% premium on the high side, if the market is good and investors get excited about one of the offerings. Mike
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