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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (7890)8/18/1999 11:59:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
JFQ re<<<he market has the look of the "Nifty Fifty" era of the early '70s, before the nasty '73 bear. Back then a small group of high p/e favorites kept the averages up while there was deterioration in the broader market.>>>

We've certainly gone through our nifty 50 stage in this bull. I guess the interesting comparison would be if cyclicals started to outperform before we entered the bear in 73. I don't recall the details but I would certainly think at least oil stocks were outperforming near the end when we entered the bear but I'm not sure about other cyclicals. I've heard of the danger sign of sudden cyclical outperformance while the former growth leaders lag as a sign of a waning bull from many besides Bob and it certainly appears to be happening now. Don't know why some would want to downplay the sudden outperformance of the Dow which is a manifestation of this when we're sitting around 26 or 27x earnings after 9 years of bull market and in the middle of Fed tightenings

Marc
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