Hi,
Wow what a letter. I probably will only hit the high points...
So if some are still a question after this... just write.
I am in no way mad with anybody at Presstek, probably I
feel upset at the way Carlton Lutts presents just the ONE
side story on Presstek.... There are no consumer reports
on Presstek are there? There is no analyst coverage...
No group of people out there telling the other side of the story. Carlton Lutts has everyone convinced this is the son of xerox...
Carlton Lutts is not a printer, I am a printer, and I'm exposed
to all the material in my industry, with all my industry contacts
built over the many years doing my job.
As I said at the meeting, I'm not giving any advise to anyone
to buy or sell... you can confirm that please. What I am giving to
you is thirty years of graphic arts experience.. I've seen it all.... I'm the realist.
I Have 3 friends in the industry that have asked for my input
on the technology.... and who better than one who assessed
the press prior to World introduction at DRUPA in 1995. At
the time I placed my order, Processless thermal was still in research.
Now, it is out of research, and is a real product.
I remember my father making his own plates in 1962 with a
centrifugal plate making machine... I doubt if anybody in
Presstek, certainly not Carlton Lutts,(he had no idea of what processless thermal polymers were when I talked to him) even
knew that people used to make their own plates with 3M R emulsion poured into the center of a plate and allowed to be spun to the outside edges of a plate..... The idea of people making their own plates is an old idea... one which will come back.
In March 1995, I was hearing that not only would Kodak be showing
the Thermal plate, Thermal was going to go processless. It was
being developed then. Now you have to understand that the new
thermal materials are single part application technology. They are
different than those of Presstek. Presstek is a multipart formulation,
one which will not allow them to apply it to cylinders through spray
or roll coat. They use silicon, magnesium, acetate, aluminum, etc... things that can't be applied to imaging drums. Presstek technology will only be plate technology, so it will not adapt to plateless presses.
I ordered the QM-DI because of the business expansion into short-run documentation printing... We already had the medium and long run side
done. I needed a cover press, one that could run 12 point thick covers
through the press. You can't do that with the Scitex Spontane or the
Xerox DocuColor 40(newly released). I had a new investment of more
than 1MM dollars in the new Siemens web-fed laser printers that were installed in April of this year... but I don't have a cover press...
I needed the QM-DI delivered as finally promised by Heidelberg this last May... well it wasn't... October is about the time we expect it now. I was among the first 25 orders in North America for this press.... everything is time value and time related.... If Heidelberg were not going to deliver until mid 1997.... I would have not ordered.
Time is everything in our business.
The estimate of 200 machines installed by end of FY96 is really, really reaching. The production rate is around 10 machines for
the World in the month of June... 0 in May... 6 total in Germany
and the US. They are not going to produce 200 total until sometime in
Feb-March time frame. There are only 650 orders out there in two years of order taking.... 1000 by the end of 97 is a dream.
After the 1st email to Neil... I realized an error, that I had left out RATE in that Cancel RATE exceeds Order RATE.... That was for
two weeks ago.... When these machines were ordered, to have a HARD
order, you only needed to sign and pay a down payment of $ 5000,
which is returnable upon cancellation. Some of the orders are and
were for multiple machines purchased by the same buyer. Two weeks
ago, it was time for one of the orderees to send in payments of
$ 100,000 per machine as his order was coming up within 90 days...
He canceled 8 out of the 10 machines he had on order... Only keeping
two. This might happen more times... Heidelberg doesn't know... If
it does happen some more... then the backlog decreases and we will
all get machines faster.
Heidelberg manufactures the press, Presstek sends the diode kits for
the presses over before Heidelberg builds the presses. When Presstek
announced that they shipped 180 Diode kits, which we knew they had,
that was the only way they had sales of 11MM dollars last quarter,
the exceeded the rate of manufacture. 45 kits were sent, only 6 machines built.... to me thats oversupply. The 45 kits that were shipped and billed for in Q 1 won't be used fully until Q 3.
The reason I did not talk to the Presstek people, is that they already know all this stuff.... The person of who should listen to this stuff
is Carlton Lutts.
I think one reason that printers like myself are excited about
doing our own plates is cost savings! I don't want to pay $ 9.50
per plate when I can pay $ 2.50 a plate and get a better result.
They would like to not acknowledge that processless thermal is not
going to be coming.... it will cramp their business model.
The second question that I asked .... went unanswered... they we
upset about where I got my info... I told them it was Heidelberg...
just like they told you to do.... Know what.... if you call Heidelberg, they will tell you that they will do not make that information available... catch 22... Bob Verrando knows that...
everyone wants to keep this a secret... they don't want the facts
out. You saw that they didn't want to take my second question...
right?
After the next question concerning the current SEC investigation into
the stock trading patterns.... they answered that they are complying
with the SEC....
Meeting over....
my motivation..... get the truth out.... because I even have
stock brokers calling me here in Medford from Smith Barney
locally, when some of thier clients hear about the stock and
want to buy it based upon Carlton Lutts' Newsletter... Even
though the P/E is over 500...
which means it will take 500 years at current earnings rate to
equal the current price of the stock now....
Creo doesn't build presses... they are the World Leaders in
imaging... just ask any major or medium size printer ... or
Seybold... They are not public yet, Goldman Sachs has invested
20 million privately, and will probably bring them public in
early 97.... This is the real stuff...
Creo has about 600+ employees at present, and are on the top of
the imaging world....
Have to go.... I'm late. Send me more questions... I'll try
to respond before Monday... or on Monday morning....
Bye
and thanks for the email.... |
