Tero, you made my point about evolutionary biology and the rate of development. The larger the population, the faster the rate of evolution. You are quite right there. There are heaps of experimentation opportunities within subsets of that big population, so the next stage of evolution will happen sooner in that big population. So, as has happened with GSM, things which are not related to the air interface have been going extremely fast and the slower GSM producers [Ericy] have run into trouble while the successful experimenter [Nokia] has taken GSM to new evolutionary heights. All that is quite right as you say. So GSM has held the line very well against CDMA.
But there is a glitch. A quite fatal glitch. Some aspects of a population lead quite simply to an evolutionary dead end. They simply cannot adapt to the new environment because they lack the necessary functionality. They might have brilliant plumage, a beautiful mating call, talons to tear and able to fly at high speed. But they might simply lack a brain. They therefore become an endangered species. All the economies of scale and experimentation opportunities are useless without the essential aspect for the new world. CDMA has the brain. Go Brain Go!
So, think dinosaurs and small furry mammals. Which of those are there more of? And which are cuter? I look at my furry arm and think it quite sporty compared with alligator hide. Being able to drive a car is good too.
The question is when will the air interface functionality of CDMA be so important that GSM population monthly sales are less than CDMA [of whatever persuasion]? Currently, there are about 3m CDMA handsets per month being sold. That is less than the ??m GSM handsets per month being sold. But the growth rate of CDMA is much faster. When 3G comes in, that rate will accelerate.
What's the current GSM handset monthly sales worldwide? Somewhere it was reported, but can't see it now. I'm guessing about 10m per month.
Maurice |
