Jean:
On the other Novell thread, people are preaching to the Novell shareholder choir. Good news and optimistic forecasts, which is just what everyone wants to hear. Without presenting supporting fact, I think that Novell is dead money for the foreseeable future. And just reading the thread leaves me all warm and fuzzy (except for the differing perspectives that V.K., et al. provide).
My view is that a merger of Novell with Sun will provide the best combination of networking technologies on the market today. Without Novell developing advanced application server capabilities, which is a strong suit of Sun’s Solstice, Netware will remain a simple file and print server environment. If you want detailed information on Solstice and how it integrates with Netware, I recommend the following sites:
sun.com
sun.com
sun.com
sun.com
sun.com
sun.com
As for me, I fold on Novell. It reminds me too much of Apple. If Apple were a rational company, they would have merged last year when they were in a position to command a premium price. Today, I would be embarrassed to say I had anything to do with Apple, or even bought AAPL stock. The creative employee minds have long since left for Sun, Netscape, and other, greener pastures. Apple is dead--a legacy of egos and junk bonds. It’s amazing how quickly you can burn through US$1,000,000,000, but AAPL did it. So could NOVL.
I’m certain that NOVL doesn’t see itself as an AAPL. But time and technologies change so very, very quickly. And NOVL, like AAPL, is seen as retreating/retrenching. What if Netscape develops better directory services than Novell’s?
If Novell were a rational company, they would arrange for a merger with a stronger organization today, immediately. They lost a few bucks. No big deal. But what about tomorrow? I would vote for a merger with a company like SUNW. At any rate, they both have complementary products, which is a great plus for a merger (see the Cisco/Stratacom details).
In short, though, I’m out. NOVL 1996 smells too much like AAPL 1995 to me. And I’m not so confident that Mr. Frankenberg isn’t as optimistic as Dr. Gil in that he can put all of the pieces back together again. Maybe it sounds good on paper. Maybe not. Maybe the fat lady is getting ready to sing. Maybe not. Maybe it’s Novell’s finest hour. Maybe not.
I really hate losing money on maybe’s, what with COMS, BAY, ASND, and CSCO all promising bright tomorrows.
But from a product perspective, SUNW makes the best fit for a healthy, happy and married NOVL.
RM |
