Heinz, I have a few, I'll bring them to your attention in the coming days. the Market is really showing some weakness this morning.
look at the 2 potent cycles that may indicate a significant secondary top in the past 2 days.
Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Wednesday, August 18, 1999.
After our telephone update last in the middle of a northern California
earthquake, we decided to do some research on the George Lindsay theory of
"Bottom to Bottom equals Bottom to Top." Remember we promoted that theory
coming into the July time period because we felt while everyone else was
looking for a 39 week cycle bottom, even people that had never followed
cycles before, there would be a good chance for a Lindsay top pattern. We
have covered several different cyclic periods that led to the possibility
of a bottom to bottom equals bottom to top count in July and mentioned them
in the July 2 newsletter. Yesterday with the Dow within 1% of new all time
closing highs, we thought there might be a possible "Bottom to Bottom
equals Bottom to top" count. We were pleasantly surprised to find two
virtually perfect counts that led to August 17 to 18. The first one,
January 16, 1996 to October 28, 1997, both perfect bottoms from which the
market never went lower, 452 market days between them. Add 452 market days
to October 28, 1997 and that takes you to August 17, 1999. The second one,
December 9, 1994 an obviously very important low, to April 14, 1997, one of
the most important lows of the past couple of years, equals 591 market
days. Add 591 market days to April 14, 1997 and you end up with August 18,
1999. To us that is further evidence that we may well have seen the top for
this corrective rally and the market might well be ready to move down once
again.
It is truly remarkable that with the New York Composite Index failing
to retrace even 50% of the market's initial decline, today's trading index
numbers are as follows: the Simple 10 day trading index, .815, and the Open
10 Trading Index .808. Those readings represent the fourth or fifth lowest,
most overbought trading index readings of the whole year, even more
overbought than the readings were at the July high. That is potentially
quite bearish.
Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity
Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call after
3:20 p.m. ET each market afternoon and call each market evening.
Stock Index futures traders are short the September S&P. Place your
initial stops at 1348.90. If you are stopped out, you may reshort on a
break of 1339.50 with a stop $2.00 above the high at the time of the short
sale. On the intra-day 30 minute charts the XAU has given a projection down
to 62.87 +- 1.50 and that could lead to even lower projections. Our
sentiments yesterday about the potential vulnerability of the XAU turned
out to be very well based today with a very significant decline today.
September bonds confirmed nominal 20 day projections to 116 and 11/32 +-
11/32. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. |
