2/99 Broadband Wireless World conference notes from Pat Mudge. Gives an idea of the NTRO market opportunity...
SI: StockTalk: Communications: Vari-L (VARL)
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To: Robert Sheldon who wrote (958)
From: pat mudge
Wednesday, May 5 1999 6:46PM ET
Reply # of 1161
Robert,
I've dug out a few notes from Broadband Wireless World conference in San Francisco in late February. There
were close to 800 attendees versus 150 the year before.
Teligent's Buddy Pickle made several predictions:
* Demand for fixed wireless will explode and in five years there'll be $10billion revenues globally versus today's
$50 million. In ten years it'll escalate to $30 billion.
* International market will be larger than U.S. over the next 5 years.
* More business customers in 10 years than fiber optic. Costs $350 million to add fiber to one building.
* Small and medium sized businesses will jump into e-commerce more than anyone realizes today. At end of 5
years there'll be 20,000 websites a day added to internet.
* Cost for equipment will plummet. This will drive new entrants to business. As costs come down, market goes
up.
* World is changing. Lines between voice, data, and video are blurring and will eventually be one. Old networks
will be gone. There'll be one network. Fixed wireless can adapt to that network.
Lucent's Larry Schwerin:
Only about 5 to 10% of businesses are connected to fiber. We're in the beginning stages of wireless broadband.
70% of businesses are out of reach of fiber.
Advanced Radio Telecom's Harry Hirsch:
Fiber growth to buildings was 65% in '96, 44% in '97, and 9% in '98. It would take 200 years to connect all the
major buildings.
NextLink's Margaret Marino:
We've targetted 27 million business lines by end of 2000 in the majority of top 30 markets. We opened 7
markets in '98 and will have 10 launches in '99 and 60 markets by the end of 2000. Deployment plans: technical
trials by the end of Q2 '99 and commercial deployment by Q4 '99.
WNP Comm's Tom Jones:
We're the largest spectrum holder on planet. Using ATM-based switches running IP, our equipment trials began
in November. In Jan. we decided to merge with NextLink. What's certain is that there's an insatiable demand for
data and speed and fiber hits only 3% of buildings in the U.S.
ATT Wireless' Laurence Seifert:
We've completed technical trials and are burning in marketing and support systems now. Need system that's
evolvable to VoIP. Need wireline quality and life-line service. Need non-line-of-sight for consumer market.
Need capacity and scalability. Need to activate services over the air (no truck roll).
Lucent's Mohammed Strakouri:
We have multiple trials across the market. ART and WinStar are key customers. Also working with Netro.
Nortel's Douglas Smith:
ATM-based IP. Must be flexible. Reliability has to be telecom-level.
Newbridge Networks's Bernard Herscovich:
Started 4 years ago and are now in Phase 4 --- delivering service to providers. Three goals: make customer
successful, bring innovative state-of-art product lines, and design, deploy, and install end-to-end solutions.
ATM-IP/Routing-radio in one box. Associated costs coming down: power, base station, etc. Reliability: if you
start with good platform you can have as many 9s as you need. LMDS in the metro market? Last six months
broadband operators have become more aggressive and will compete with fiber where there is fiber. [NN has
announced 5 LMDS contracts to date.]
It's clear statistics are all over the map at this point but it's also clear the market is heating up and services being
turned on. The major CLECs involved are WinStar, Teligent, NextLink, and Advanced Radio
Telecommunications.
Does anyone know if Vari-L has estimates for their segment of the market? I know it's not their primary focus
but I'd like to know how they're positioned.
Later ---
Pat |
