Re:Reports that LU is falling behind shipments
I personally do not subscribe to Cammaratas' newsletter and just passed along a snippet for discussion. Here is what I
was passed.
">HOOFBEAT 990819
>
>XXXX LUCENT EXCLUSIVE BREAKING NEWS ! XXXX
>
>Here's the bad news: I haven't heard the analysts talking about this yet and
>I'm not sure whether I'm the first one to report on it, but Lucent is having
>extreme problems in meeting production schedules and shipment dates on their
>old line telephony products. We are talking serious unit backlog measured in
>the thousands. Apparently that factory was shut down for several weeks for a
>SAP implementation along with Order Flow this and that. Things have not
>returned to normal and they continue to fall behind. Anecdotal evidence of
>large customers having concrete 'set-in-stone' shipment and installation
>dates have had to contact all their other vendors to postpone those
>installations into the unknown future. In some cases, the Lucent guys are so
>clueless about the backlog that they are sizing up the customer site
>deciding where they are going to put all the equipment that they are
>'shipping any day this week' only to realize that none of it has even been
>built at this time. Not only has Lucent fallen behind on this set of product
>lines, but no one knows how or when they will be able to recover from this
>backlog, they were pretty much running at high capacity prior to the
>disruptions. So, I will try and keep an eye on this problem and we will have
>to consider the financial impacts of this type of disruption. It doesn't
>take much to drop the stock 10 points or so, it would only take lower than
>expected revenue. This disruption may very well hit them slightly at the
>bottom line. Dropping a penny in this market does not come with great
>results. I'm not selling any of my Lucent stock, holding on for the long
>term. This disruption will be a short term less than 6 months issue, but it
>could very well have a short term impact on the stock price. When the
>analysts get a hold of this info, we will start to see it show up in the
>stock. For those short term traders out there, they might want to explore
>the opportunities. There doesn't look to be any room for upside in this quarter"
EOM about LU
>
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>Mike Cammarata
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