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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (66429)8/19/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
Wayne: I don't know how long you have followed Stratfor.com. They have been chanting this even since the end of 1997. Yes, the economic problems in China are severe, and hard to deal with. The bottom line is that the Chinese consumers do not want to borrow money. Most of them buy apartment with cash, believe it or not. Not much the government can do about it. This is a cultural thing. Devalue? possible, but not imminent. I think Julius Wong (a SI member) has a better indicator for whether China will devalue its currency, which is the difference bet. the exchange rate on Shanghai black market and the official exchange rate. When this rate is 20% higher than official rate, then the devalue is very likely, and now the difference is 8%. So his conclusion is unlikely. I agree with him on this. FWIW
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