More number crunching fun with WSJ KIDE figures:
Here was my recent post using numbers obtained from the WSJ:
5,340,000 shares according to Yahoo.
Range is 20% of 5% of sales to 50% of 15% of sales, according to article:
If Pokemon-related sales are a $1 billion next year, here is the range:
20% of 5% of $1b= $10m /5,340,000 = $1.87 per share lowest possible
50% of 15% of $1B=$75M /5,340,000= $14 per share highest possible
What should the KIDE share price be per BILLION dollars in Pokemon sales (recalling that the article said Pokemon was a multibillion dollar product in Japan)?
All this is pre split for September given the above Yahooo figure of 5,340,000 shares.
Let's assume a VERY CONSERVATIVE p:e of 20.
>>at $1.87 earning per share , a P:E of 20 yields a share price per billion dollars of Pokemon stuff sold. =$37.40. This assumes NO WCW income and no other income (LOL).
>>at $14.00 earning per share , a P:E of 20 yields a share price per billion dollars of Pokemon stuff sold. =$280.00. This assumes NO WCW income and no other income (LOL).
Now, then, that is the range that one could expect if at the low end ($1.87 per share) ALL the licenses gave the lowest possible commission. The high end assumes ALL the licenses gave the highest possible commission mentioned in the article. Both are illogical assumptions given the fact that such a range exists.
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Now, I will pull a number out of my hat, a conservative $4.00 per share per billion dollars of Pokemon sold. How did I come up with that? I guessed - and to be conservative, I guessed that roughly 1/3 was at the high end and 2/3 were at the low end.
If you accept that number, $4 earning per share, then a P:E of 20 yields a price per share of $80 pre-(Sept)split.
If you do not accept that number, then do your own calculations realizing that at P:E = 20 , the price per share should go up (duh) $20 per dollar earned per share, then come up with your own share price.
The math is easy. I welcome comments based on math (again rather than "droppping like a stone", "a pig", etc. that really have no bearing on my outloook for the next 12 months). |
