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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7915)8/19/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Justa, I agree a rally before or after the Fed meeting is possible but it may be becoming less likely any such rally will have legs. This weak dollar issue is going to tend to make the Fed willing to err on the tight side which is slowly increasing the very small chance of 50 basis points or a raise with a bias to tightening followed by another increase at the next meeting neither of which is priced in I'm concerned this market is ripe for an excuse to reach that inflection point whether it be this dollar issue or some international event like China which unfortunately is back on the radar screen. Sounds like the economy in China is not doing well and now besides talking threateningly to Taiwan they've been making contacts with private US think tanks asking what they think the US response would be to a military attack. As to 1994 best I can remember Bob was very confident and bullish and willing to call multiple gift horse opportunities. This is very far from the way he's been talking lately with talk of possible inflection points etc. We have also had five more years of bull market since then and I don't have the numbers but I'm sure the multiple expansion since then has been very large. I guess we'll all have to see what happens. A nice scenario if we're reaching the end might be to get some rally near Fed time and if the model is going to issue a sell have it happen on this final rise.

Marc

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