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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Mani1 who wrote (69314)8/20/1999 1:02:00 AM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) of 1573072
 
Mani,

<1. Equity investment by IBM>

Actually I see this as a bad news for AMD longs even though there may be a short term pop if such a deal occurs.

<2. Fab partner for Dresden, most likely Motorola>

Personally I would like this decision to be taken in Q1 once AMD has a good idea on what kind of commercial design wins they have. If they get Dell, I say forget it!

<3. Announcement of K6III 500 and 550, K6 mobile 450>

We should have heard about K6-3 this this week but got pushed back to next week. Unless they announce some high power design wins or some other associated good news, I would be surprised if that creates a pop.

<4. Announcement of K7 700>

That's a good one! Rumor mill says that is going to be October.

<5. Expansion of product offering by Compaq and IBM>

The IBM deal was a sweetheart one on the consumer side but we haven't heard Compaq side of the story. Commercial side would be sweet!

<6. Adoption by smaller OEM's (tier 2?) like Quantex and Micron>

I would be surprised if the market cares for this stuff.

<All and all they have got to keep selling K7's at ASP above $350 or so>

This is the part that usually has surprises but going by the current pricing AMD seems to be shipping K7s at about $350 and Intel its PIIIs at about $240 (from estimated $260 from last Q).

There should be at least 300K K7 ships this Q and probably 600K chipsets (assuming 900K Athlons for next Q and assuming chipsets get sold 4-5 weeks before CPUs). It is mind boggling that none of the analysts (other than Niles) have picked this up yet!

Chuck
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