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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 329.07-0.4%Feb 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (32177)8/20/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
G.,

Most of the reasons for my optimism have already appeared on this thread.

1. BK and others posting numerous stories re chip demand skyrocketing, DRAM prices firming, CapEx budgets growing, foundries at >100% of capacity, ...

2. AMAT conference call comments by Morgan:

A. Wave 1- 0.18µ buildout
B. Wave 2- Cu, Low and High K Dielectric tools
C. Wave 3- 300mm.

D. Far East decision makers / approvers on vacation until September. [Same is probably true for the rest of the world.] Normal seasonal order slowdown. Summers are not noted for high growth. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation knows how difficult it can be to get all the required decision makers to sign off on a "new" initiative during the summer. The only worse time is the last 3 weeks of December to the 2nd week of January.

3. Preliminary numbers understate the orders, sometimes significantly.

To believe that this upleg is over from a chip equipment pricing perspective, one has to think that:

1. Cu R&D will stop dead in its tracks. No Cu pilot lines will be established.

2. Low K and High K dielectric tools will not be purchased or introduced into pilot lines.

3. 300mm process development will stop dead in its tracks.

4. Chipmakers operating at,near or above 100% Capacity utilization will willingly cede market share to their competitors. Yah, sure. In a pig's eye!

Ian. [JMHO]
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