Dr. Zax
This painfully boring Maxpain conversation has been going on for several days, as it does once a month at expiration. Here's my best statement as to what in fact is happening.
techstocks.com
You comment, If it is true that max pain works then the best way to play it is to wrote calls just above the max-pain point and write puts just below it.
First, Maxpain doesn't work (we've already beat that horse to death) and, second, you're advocating a naked short straddle, IMO, the most dangerous options trade. I've only done it once about four or five years ago and I didn't sleep the entire four days I held the position. The only way you make money with a short straddle is if the market goes nowhere. Any move at all and you lose.
What do you mean by Other than a psychological draw....? I assume you mean people playing options believe the Maxpain theory and buy or write options with that in mind, which is probably true. Your next statement certainly is true: there should be no connection between the max pain and the actual closing price of a stock
You go on to say, There will, however, be a close connection between the price that a large firm finds it most advantageous to close at and the price it closes at on a witching Friday.
Is this another conspiracy theory?
Best,
--Steve |
