Dave, you're right about me jumping all over you sorry. Have a couple of points where I still disagree with you.
#3. I think the financing is coming, but no announcement until all 15 mil (Royalty units ?) sold.
#4. Why do you think Ni production is a dream? Do you think there is a lack of capital, or a lack of operational experience, or both, or more than that?
#5. Inco from 23 to 32. That's nice, a 39% gain. CMR from .50 to .78. That's a 56% gain. Nicer.
If you, Ted or I were really smart, we would have gone long 9 month options on Ni in January. Appreciation on options would have been about 800%.
#8. Red Engine shares weren't tradeable before the conversion, so whoever was selling to stop runups and after PR's before 10/98 couldn't be using Red Engine shares.
#9. Efficient market theory. I think the valuation 1 month ago for internet stocks has pretty much debunked the efficient market theory. Part of the problem with CMR is that nobody knows about the stock. Some of this is cyclical and related to last 3 years bear markets in commodities. Ni is up 80% in 9 months. I think this is highest return of any investment in 99.
How many people know that Ni is up 80%? You'll see a brief mention in the Australian Press or rarely in the FT. It's never mentioned on CNBC, in the Wall Street Journal, or in Barron's. Has the G&M picked up on it yet. How many of your friends know about it. How many of our friends and brokers are hot to buy resource stocks?
10) Payout of failure of laterites? There is still a story to tell of who trashed the Ni market in May-Dec. of 98. The laterites were part of it, but except for money they made shorting in May, it benefitted them little if at all. (Especially when they had to cover). Inco benefitted, and the funds that sold in May and covered and went long in Dec. benefitted.
As to the payout now, yeah, Inco might double from here and go to $64. If CMR goes into production, and makes $40 mil a year, that gives you a $10 stock or an increase of 1200% in stock value.
CMR, assuming they go into production, is like an option on Ni prices. This option however, does not go out of date. |
